La Nina and India’s monsoon

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Meteorologists have said El Nino – a warming of surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – led to a deficient monsoon in India last year. EL Nino, which translates to The Little Boy, has a sister called La Nina, which translates to The Little Girl. La Nina –a below-average cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – which will kick in this year, will bring cheer to India and is expected to deliver a better-than-average monsoon for the subcontinent.

(A typical scenerio of El Nino and La Nina Source. Check this Infographics)

Above average rainfall

Skymet Weather Services, a privately owned forecaster, recently predicted – with a margin of error of 4% – that the four months of monsoon beginning in June would yield 109% more rainfall than the LPA (long period average). On average, India receives 887 mm of rainfall, and a increase of 9% (966.83 mm) is considered to be ‘above average.’ An increase of 10% or more is considered to be ‘excess.

Early onset

Experts have revised an initial forecast, which predicted that La Niña would kick in this September-October. Now, they expect its onset to be around the same time as the onset of the Indian monsoon.

Lots of rain in August, September

Meteorologists predict that rainfall will be 13% below average in June, but 8% above average in July. The second half of the monsoon season will be significantly wetter than the first, with rainfall expected to be 13% above average in August, and 23% above average in September.


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